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Walt’s Personal Beliefs
I believe the fundamental risk is not losing one's money but outliving ones money. Risk has changed because life has changed. People are living longer and retirement is longer. Sitting on a rocking chair and sipping a tall glass of lemonade no longer define retirement. So the biggest risk is not losing one's principal but not being able to have the buying power you need to live your life.
I believe the only safety lies in the real growth of buying power. I define real growth of buying power as positive returns from my investments after inflation and taxes are deducted. Investments that grow buying power are safe. Those that do not are not.
I believe the greatest long-term risk of stocks, is not owning them. The right time to buy stocks is now (as long as you have the money. The right time to sell stocks is never (unless you need the money).
I believe that everything you need to know about movement of stocks can be summed up in eight words; the downs are temporary; the ups are permanent. Fluctuation is not loss. Stock prices go down all the time - - 25% on average every five years. Market fluctuations do not create losses. Only people create losses by mistaking a fluctuation for a permanent loss and selling out. No panic, No sell. No sell, no lose. The enemy of investment success is not ignorance, it is fear. So it is faith not knowledge that creates investment success.
I believe that “bear markets” equate to “big sale.”
I do not believe in individual stocks, we believe in managed portfolio of stocks. It is easy to break a pencil; it is difficult impossible to break 20 pencils tied together. That is diversification. One stock can go to zero. Stocks as an asset class cannot go to zero.
I believe in dollar cost averaging. The more “knowledge” you have and the more you try to outsmart the market, the worse you will do. The more you see the market as long-term inevitable and short-term unknowable the more you will be inclined to dollar cost average, and the better you will do.
I love volatility. Volatility cannot hurt us unless we panic and sell. Volatility creates opportunity with lower prices. Having some money to dollar cost average in will help me avoid panic and fear of volatility.
I am not afraid of a 25% downturn in the market. We are more afraid of missing the next 100% upturn in the market. We have no ability whatsoever to time markets. We have found no machine, no black box or no fortune seller that can predict markets consistently and accurately. The only process that will work is staying invested 100% of the time. It is hard but no one ever said investing would be easy. I believe that before retirement people should own as close to 100% equities as they can emotionally stand. Then, after retirement they should own as closest to 100% equities as they can emotionally stand. “Suitability” is a big issue but it is an emotional issue, not a financial one.
These are our beliefs and this is why I firmly believe that devoting money to an individual stock portfolio makes sense. As an investor you must define your own beliefs. I advise you to write your beliefs down, review them often and most importantly make sure that you adhere to them as this is your core of your investment philosophy.
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